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Economists Warn Slower Home Sales Risky for Economy. Will the Fed Continue to Lower Rates?
The sharpest slowdown in U. S. home-price growth in three decades is trapping owners with mortgages they can't afford, pushing unsold homes to a record 4.42 million and gutting profits for builders.
The U.S. median home price next year may fall for the first time since the Great Depression, said Gabriel Stein, chief international economist with Lombard Street Research in London. Analysts predict more interest rate cuts in 2008 and 2009 before the Fed shifts directions to head off inflation.
Economists such as Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz warn that the reduced home sales, higher interest rates and credit crunch, may push the world's largest economy into recession.
"The housing slowdown will be a large drag on economic activity," said Jan Hatzius, chief U. S. economist with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. "The Fed may cut mortgage rates to 4 percent next year as the housing downturn starts to push up the unemployment rate."